Predictions for the 2024 Presidential Election
Some projections and observations in a tightly contested race for the White House.
Right off the break, an apology for the clickbaity title. We have reached the tail end of a highly divisive and contested election. It’s going to be a close one. Anyone telling you they can predict the outcome on Tuesday is selling you political snake oil.
That said, here is my best guess of the outcome, along with some other interesting things we may see once all the votes are counted. I am basing this not just on polling, but also on reports and anecdotes on the ground in key battleground states and elsewhere.
Harris will win (by a hair), and the US will have its first woman President.
Polls have shown Harris and Trump to be neck and neck for the last several months. All seven battleground states have consistently reported outcomes within the margin of error; in essence a statistical coin flip between the candidates.
Some of this is due to some sketchy practices on the part of pollsters. A fear of getting it wrong has led many polling firms to massage the numbers, eliminating outliers to make their projections show a tighter race. This practice, known as herding, calls into question the validity of polling at a time when disinformation and false narratives are plaguing the American electoral system. It needs to end.
With all that said, it is safe to say that all seven of the battleground states will be close. Harris may end up winning them all; Trump may end up winning them all (I think the former outcome is more likely). The most likely outcome is somewhere between those two extremes.
Polls seem to be swinging in Harris’ direction right when it matters most. Many recent polls have her either up or in a better position, even if it’s within the margin of error. There seems to be some some undercounting of women voters in particular, which pollsters are starting to try to account for. Some polls have Democrats shooting for the moon. A recent poll by the Des Moines register has Harris up in Iowa. Yes, that Iowa.
More importantly, Harris seems to have more votes in the bank already. Early votes are trending in her direction in battleground states. She may have half a million or more votes in Pennsylvania alone by the time polls open on Election Day.
All of this leads me to believe that Harris will win. Her easiest path is the one I think is most likely. I am projecting her to win three swing states in the Great Lakes region- Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania- thereby shoring up the proverbial “Blue Wall” of northern states. These are the three states she has generally polled best in, and also the states where Harris has put in the best ground game.
If she wins all three states, she will only need Nebraska’s second district to give her the 270 votes she needs to win. Luckily, she is well ahead, in that race:
Trump will sweep the Sun Belt and Ohio, but fall short
Which is a good thing, because Harris may well fall short in every other battleground state. Harris has not polled as well for as long as in the aforementioned states, and a number of factors may have her fall just short in all of them.
In Ohio, Trump has won in two successive elections and has led in most polls throughout, so a reversal of that trend is unlikely. In North Carolina, turnout will be dampened due to the aftermath of hurricane Helene, and any reduction in turnout is almost always to Democrats’ detriment. The same can be said for Georgia, where tepid support from key immigrant groups adds to Democrats’ challenges.
The best news for Harris in the Sun Belt may come from Nevada. John Ralston, editor of the Nevada Independent and a premier state electoral expert, is calling the race for Harris by a razor thin margin of 0.3 percent. This is the most positive credible poll she’s received so far, but it’s still too close for me to get on board. In 2020, Democrats benefitted in Nevada from a good ground game conducted during the primaries by Senator Bernie Sander’s campaign. Harris did not have the same luxury this time around. Trump’s rising vote share Latino voters (more on this below) will therefore put him just over the top in Nevada and Arizona.
We will see less deep reds and blues, and more pinks and light blues on the 2024 map
You will likely not see as many fun-colored maps as mine on Election Day, but I wanted to highlight this important trend. 2024 will see less “safe” states for either party. Changing demographics and migration patterns, as well as the candidates’ campaign strategies will all serve to make previously uncontested states closer than before.
Trump’s focus on turning out apolitical men will see him increase his vote share in urban areas along the East Coast and Rust Belt. His xenophobic propaganda about migrants will also gain him votes in border areas. Most of this will not help him electorally; it doesn’t matter whether he loses New York by 20 points or 40 points. But it may help him secure Ohio, and make future races in rural parts of the East Coast, as well as states like Colorado, New Mexico, and Minnesota more competitive.
On the other side, Harris’ strategy of focusing on independent and disaffected Republican voters will also see her get larger vote shares in the South and Midwest. Like Trump’s East Coast gains, there may not be any electoral gains to be had (unless Iowa really is in play). However, the increase in people moving from large metropolitan areas on the coasts to smaller cities in the Sun Belt will make these Democratic gains more likely to continue. This will give Democrats a better electoral map going forward, with potentially more competitive local races in the South and in the middle states. Texas and Florida would be the ultimate prizes. Democrats will very likely fall short there this time around, but any result over 45% should have them daring to dream big for 2028.
We will see a record number of split tickets
Today’s divisive political climate has made split-ticket voters- those who vote for candidates from different parties on their ballot- more of a rarity. Democrats’ hopes of retaining the Senate may well depend on them, however. Two of the most vulnerable Senators- John Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio- would benefit greatly from Trump supporters who either don’t vote down ballot or still favor them as the more well known candidates.
Harris’ strategy of courting Republican voters sick of Trump will result in an uptick of the the opposite type of split ticket voter, however. Unlike the cultish Trump supporters, never-Trump Republican voters are high information voters. They are more likely to follow local politics and favor traditional Republican policies such as low taxes, immigration restrictions, and a conservative foreign policy. If Harris is successful is getting them to vote for her, that’s as far as their support for Democrats will go on Tuesday.
Trump will gain with Latino voters, but not by as much as he could have
For much of the 21st century, Democrats have largely taken Latino voters for granted. They have foregone extensive engagement with this fast growing group of voters, thinking Republican xenophobia, esepcially after Trump rose to power, will naturally secure support for their side.
This has been a losing strategy so far. Years of targeted outreach by Republicans have eroded Democratic support. The GOP has expertly identified and engaged Latino voters they can most likely sway (religious voters, non college educated men, voters who may see undocumented migrants as “cutting the line”). It has paid dividends. Despite Trump’s rabid and hateful rhetoric, he has nonetheless taken advantage of Democratic ineptitude and has increase his share of Latino voters. In 2020, he received more than a quarter of the Latino vote. Just over a month ago, he was polling at 40 percent, enough to make a Republican landslide a distinct possibility.
Harris and Democrats were recently given a lifeline, however. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s racist comments about Puerto Rico seems to have made a mark on a lot of Latino voters, plunging Trump’s numbers:
If these numbers hold, it would likely give Harris the edge in Pennsylvania, the battleground state with the most Puerto Rican voters. I am not sure if Trump’s numbers will fall enough among other Latino voters to put Harris over the top in Nevada and Arizona. But a few minutes of racist “comedy” has increased the Democrats’ chances for an election landslide.
Key voting bloc to watch: pro-Palestinian voters
The genocide in Gaza has served as the most deplorable aspect of the Democratic platform. Harris has so far been loathe to distance herself from President Biden’s steadfast support of Israeli atrocity. In fact, her campaign has done everything possible to distance herself from any voter for whom Palestine is a key issue. This will be a key reason why she will not win as many votes nationally as Biden did in 2020.
As always, it depends where she loses those votes. Michigan, in particular, is the biggest source of concern. It has one of the largest populations of Muslim voters in the country. During the primaries, over 100,000 people voted “uncommitted” as a protest against President Biden. If the same number don’t show up for Harris, it could jeopardize her chances there (and, by extension, her chances at the White House).
So far, this scenario does not seem likely. As mentioned, Harris’ ground game has been strong in Michigan. The pro-Palestinian bloc seems to be split on whether or not to back Harris. Some Muslim leaders and “Uncommitted” voters have come around to endorsing her. However, if this is not enough for Harris in Michigan and elsewhere, Democrats will only have themselves to blame.
The gender divide will be historic, and will define politics going forward
In many ways, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is as a reflection of how the country views gender equality and what it means to be a man and woman in American society.
Kamala Harris represents the culmination of decades of progress for women’s rights and an equal opportunity for everyone, regardless of their gender. Harris is the embodiment of the ideal woman leader: intelligent, ambitious, professional, with ability to demonstrate grace and empathy when needed.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, represents the toxic backlash to woman’s progress. His persona is entirely based on a masculinity of subjugation and dominance, one that relies on outdated tropes about manhood that appeal to men who feel forgotten by a rapidly changing society. Trump’s followers see racial and gender equality as a zero sum game, one in which progress for women and people of color come at the expense of men (white men, in particular).
Both candidates have leaned into the gender divide. Harris has put reproductive freedom at the forefront of her campaign, spurred on by the Dobbs Supreme Court decision reversing women’s right to abortion. She is hoping this, as well as women’s anger over Trump’s misogyny in general, will carry her to the White House. Trump, for his part, has maintained his misogynistic rhetoric, while painting a socioeconomic vision whereby the country will be dominated by men once it is purged from migrants and other minorties.
Harris’ strategy seems to be more likely to be successful. She is gaining with women, particularly young women, at a greater rate than her losses among men. Furthermore, Trump’s gains among Black men, initially thought to be an increase in the double digits, now seem to be closer to statistical insignificance. Harris’ focus on women also gives her an advantage with likely voters, given that women tend to vote more consistently than men.
As mentioned before, the mostly male-dominated pollsters are likely underestimating the degree to which women are turning out for Harris. The degree of that underestimation will determine if this is a small Harris win or a landslide. The key demographic is white women, particularly those who are over 40 and/or have not gone to college. Historically, white women have tended to vote Republican, with some studies indicating they do so to preserve their proximity to white male privilege. White women favored Trump in both of the last elections, and Trump even increased his vote share this time around. Whether abortion rights, or just simply being sick of Trumpian masculinity, will lead white women to buck this trend is yet to be determined.
If women elect Kamala Harris to the White House, it would change the makeup and vision for American governance for years to come.